WCWS Schedule Update

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Why was TN playing their outfielders up so much in the bottom of the 11th. Even with slappers at bat I'd still want to keep the ball in front of my outfielders. That allowed the triples. The 1st one would have been caught if they were playing at normal depth. JMO

 

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It was a great game and hopefully we'll get another one tonight. I couldn't believe it when Turang didn't score in the 3rd inning - Gasso had to be kicking herself for holding her as the game went on.

 

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National Player of the year and 34-1 Rickets not getting the start tonight???? are you freaking kidding me???? I'll bet her parents are P I S S E D!!!!!!!

 

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I agree but it's working. I'm sitting in the stands and Tenn looks awful at the plate. I think last night took the starch out of them.

 

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National Player of the year and 34-1 Rickets not getting the start tonight???? are you freaking kidding me???? I'll bet her parents are P I S S E D!!!!!!!

ROTFLMAO !!!!!!!! My goodness , thats one of the best !!!

 

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Why was TN playing their outfielders up so much in the bottom of the 11th. Even with slappers at bat I'd still want to keep the ball in front of my outfielders. That allowed the triples. The 1st one would have been caught if they were playing at normal depth. JMO

When Tenn was up 3-1 and Oklahoma had a runner on second and two outs, Tenn did have its outfielders playing in. I would have had them back, taking away an extra-base hit. This way, unless there is a HR (and there is nothing you can do about that no matter where you play), Oklahoma needs three straight hits to tie the game. Even if you give a hitter a 3-in-10 chance at getting a hit, the odds of getting three hits in a row at that average are roughly 3%. I'll take those odds every time on defense. But if you give up a double or a triple, then only two hits in a row are needed and those odds (with .300 hitters) are about 1 in 11.

 

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National Player of the year and 34-1 Rickets not getting the start tonight???? are you freaking kidding me???? I'll bet her parents are P I S S E D!!!!!!!

Starting Ricketts in Game 2 last year didn't work out very well... Michelle Gascoigne was one of the 10 finalists for POY and was the ERA leader in all D1. Without her, OK doesn't make it to the WCWS. It was the smart move by Gasso to ensure OK won WCWS regardless of what happened tonight.

As far as the parents go, they probably trust Gasso to do what's right for the team. Besides, since when do coaches care what parents think?

 

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When Tenn was up 3-1 and Oklahoma had a runner on second and two outs, Tenn did have its outfielders playing in. I would have had them back, taking away an extra-base hit. This way, unless there is a HR (and there is nothing you can do about that no matter where you play), Oklahoma needs three straight hits to tie the game. Even if you give a hitter a 3-in-10 chance at getting a hit, the odds of getting three hits in a row at that average are roughly 3%. I'll take those odds every time on defense. But if you give up a double or a triple, then only two hits in a row are needed and those odds (with .300 hitters) are about 1 in 11.

Your calculations assume the chance of a slapper hitting an extra-base hit are the same as a hit. Martinez only had 6 doubles and no triples in 138 AB - that's only .043 vs her Avg of .336. The odds of her getting an extra-base hit and Parsons (.288) driving her in were only 1.25%. TN had successfully kept OU's slappers off base all game and I can't fault them for continuing what had worked to keep the tying run off base. The whole comeback was a miracle of sorts and I'd say the tired pitcher was more a factor than the OF positioning. JMO

 

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Starting Ricketts in Game 2 last year didn't work out very well... Michelle Gascoigne was one of the 10 finalists for POY and was the ERA leader in all D1. Without her, OK doesn't make it to the WCWS. It was the smart move by Gasso to ensure OK won WCWS regardless of what happened tonight.

As far as the parents go, they probably trust Gasso to do what's right for the team. Besides, since when do coaches care what parents think?

I was being sarcastic SoCal.....

 

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The world needs a sarcasm font. (First world probs)

 

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I was being sarcastic SoCal.....

In that case - great post! I guess I should have taken a clue from MD's response...

 

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Your calculations assume the chance of a slapper hitting an extra-base hit are the same as a hit. Martinez only had 6 doubles and no triples in 138 AB - that's only .043 vs her Avg of .336. The odds of her getting an extra-base hit and Parsons (.288) driving her in were only 1.25%. TN had successfully kept OU's slappers off base all game and I can't fault them for continuing what had worked to keep the tying run off base. The whole comeback was a miracle of sorts and I'd say the tired pitcher was more a factor than the OF positioning. JMO

I think this is a little bit misleading, although a very good observation! It makes it appear as though Oklahoma had only a 1.25% chance of getting the game tied if Tennessee played the way it did. First and as an aside, I'm sure many of Martinez's singles were bunts or infield singles and those aren't changed by moving the outfield either way. So you are playing your outfield based on the odds of an extra-base hit if the ball does go to the outfield. But all of that isn't the main point. The question becomes how much are you increasing her odds of an extra-base hit by playing in and how much are you increasing her odds of a single by playing back. There is no way in our game to know the answer to that question, but I'm willing to increase her chances for a single in return for a decrease in her chances for a double or triple in that situation.

 

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Your calculations assume the chance of a slapper hitting an extra-base hit are the same as a hit. Martinez only had 6 doubles and no triples in 138 AB - that's only .043 vs her Avg of .336. The odds of her getting an extra-base hit and Parsons (.288) driving her in were only 1.25%. TN had successfully kept OU's slappers off base all game and I can't fault them for continuing what had worked to keep the tying run off base. The whole comeback was a miracle of sorts and I'd say the tired pitcher was more a factor than the OF positioning. JMO

I think this is a little bit misleading, although a very good observation! It makes it appear as though Oklahoma had only a 1.25% chance of getting the game tied if Tennessee played the way it did.
I was merely trying to show that the odds of a slapper getting an extra-base hit are much lower than you represented. OU obviously still had the possibility of scoring without an extra-base hit.

First and as an aside, I'm sure many of Martinez's singles were bunts or infield singles and those aren't changed by moving the outfield either way. So you are playing your outfield based on the odds of an extra-base hit if the ball does go to the outfield.
OF isn't going to make a play on infield hits, but their position is going to have some influence on what the slapper tries to do.

But all of that isn't the main point. The question becomes how much are you increasing her odds of an extra-base hit by playing in and how much are you increasing her odds of a single by playing back. There is no way in our game to know the answer to that question, but I'm willing to increase her chances for a single in return for a decrease in her chances for a double or triple in that situation.

I agree we can't definitively say how much each strategy is going to affect the odds. Do you happen to know whether Tenn brought the OF in at that point or had they been playing there the whole game? Also, please clarify how far back you mean by "playing back" in this scenario (e.g. back for a slapper but not deeper than for a regular hitter, deep for a power hitter, etc)?

Good slappers go after what the defense is giving them under the constraint of what they're likely able to do off the pitcher, so picking the optimum defensive arrangement depends largely on how well your pitcher is able to control what the slappers can do. Unfortunately for TN, looked like Ellen was too tired at that point and consequently gave up 5 extra-base hits in a row. OF positioning allowed the triple by Martinez and we'll never know what she would have chosen to do if the OF was playing back.

 

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First, let me say I'm thrilled someone actually wants to talk about this type of stuff with me! I don't know whether Tenn had been playing in that same spot the whole game. As far as "playing back," of course it would depend on what I knew about the hitter, but with a typical slapper who mostly singles but is capable of driving a ball, I would play them pretty much straight up in that situation. How much farther back that is from normal would depend on the particular slapper. For some reason, on OFC, when I hit my enter button it doesn't do anything and I can't break up paragraphs. Anyway, I agree that a good slapper will take what the defense is giving her. That can work both ways, though, as she can not only go for the soft line drive to the outfield if they play back, but also try to drive the ball for extra bases if they are in and she is the tying run in the last inning. I'm sure Ellen was probably tired, but she had been so good to that point, I would still have gladly taken my chances in forcing Oklahoma to get three singles in a row to tie the game (assuming the tying run didn't hit a home run or there were any extra-base hits that a defense couldn't realistically prevent ).

 

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A couple of the toughest coaching decisions in softball:
1. Recognizing when a fresh #2 is better than a tired ace.
2. Making a pitching change with 2 outs - keep thinking they'll get the next batter out.