Base Stealing Opinions Wanted!

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I know what they say "opinions are like ________s, we all have one and they all stink!" But in having a conversation with a few coaches and a parent or two, everyone has a different opinion / idea on base stealing. Easy example: your fastest player and good base stealer gets on first, no score, no outs, early in the game, maybe even a lead-off hit. What pitch do you send her? Does your hitter have green light to swing, take, fake bunt? I know every situation is different with outs, pitcher's control, winning, losing, early or late in the game but I just want some other (smarter than me) people's thoughts.
I have ran first pitch with a green light to hit plenty of times and got doubled up on a line drive (as we all have). I have had a hitter take or fake bunt for a strike and then hear I took the bat out of her hands. What do you do?

 

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Coach was just talking about this with the team tonight.
He put it like this softball is a team sport made up of a whole bunch of little things that make big things happen. So if I give the take sign or have u lay down a sac bunt do your job! To many games are won or lost by one run so even tho that little thing might not seem that important know that its just as big as a solo homerun in a 1 to nothing ball game.......
So you have to do what's best for your team not because mommy or daddy want to see little Susie swing the bat. I have heard parents say why would he waste her for that, just drives me crazy!!!!!

 

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My philosophy is that there's a lot of merit in being unpredictable ... sometimes sending the runner on the first pitch, sometimes having the batter take or fake bunt to get the runner into scoring position, and sometimes just letting the batter swing away. In this situation, a lot depends on the arm of the catcher, and the quality of the other team ... whether I expect this to be a close game, etc. Agree with softballer though ... this is a team game first and foremost, and if we need the second batter to take a pitch or bunt to help the team, she needs to do this and I don't want to hear from her or her parents, or I have a much lower spot in the order (or a position on the bench) for her. There's probably no more valuable of a lesson we can teach a young player than that this is a team game, and that they need to do whatever the team needs them to do for the team to be successful. And batters who bat 2nd in the order need to understand that their primary job is to advance the lead runner if she gets on.

 

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So many times teams steal on the first pitch, so I like to wait until after that. Let my batter swing away, looking for the high "ball" in anticipation of setting up the catcher to throw down or a strike to hit for a pitcher wanting to start ahead of the count. And I do not want to call steal and then swing away right into a double play, like to give the runner atleast a chance to get back.

As coach Warren says:

"If it is a ball I'll take till pitcher throws a strike. The deeper you get in the count better chance for a mistake.
Once runner on 2nd with one out I will take two whacks at it she will score on a hit from there if she is that fast. If no one out I may bunt.
If she makes it to third on passed ball with 1 out or less I will probably bunt that batter especially if I'm low in the order or at the top of the order."

I like those plays also.

So many factors though, catcher, batter, base runners, score, etc....

 

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In the initial scenario (no outs, fastest runner on 1st) - IF I have a good bunt-for-a-hit player or slapper at the plate, I'd use the hit and run. If I have a good contact hitter up but not a bunter/slapper, then I like to let her handle her own at bat and IF I think she may K for whatever reason, I will usually steal to open up 1B for the DTS possibility. Stealing without a take for the batter is a little dangerous BUT manageble with good base running technique. The stealing player needs to know that at the crack of the bat, she has to pickup the ball and make a determination to either hold up to wait to see if it is possibly going to get caught for an out.

As others stated, many many different factors can change this but I use it as my default for this scenario.

 

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The stats that were developed during one of the NCAA DI playoffs indicated that a runner at first with no outs and and runner at second with one out had the about the same odds of scoring. The bunting her over is not clearly a winning strategy in softball.

Try to get her to second without giving up an out. Let your batter hit, straight steal, passed ball, run on a change-up, etc...
I call second base.... 'where runners go to die.'

 

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One consideration of stealing or not stealing in the first inning is that if you don't make an attempt, you may not find out that you can run on this catcher all day. If you wait until the fifth inning to steal a base and only then you see that this catcher is not likely to throw you out, you might have given up a half dozen easy steals earlier in the game.

With the odds that fairman gave above from the one study, the only issue with the study is that the sample size wasn't big enough to mean much. I would guess, though, that the result is probably about right, anyway, and that a runner on first with no outs will have about the same odds of scoring as a runner on second with one out. Of course, you're giving up an out to move her to second, which greatly reduces your odds of having an inning of two or more runs. The only time to sac bunt is if you're playing for one run and you think moving up one base in exchange for an out will increase your odds of getting that run (or, playing for two runs and sac bunting with 1st and 2nd and no outs).

 

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Great point, Joe, about seeing exactly what the catcher can do early ... you can only get so much info from the throwdown before a game. The only issue in these stupid time limit games we have in travel ball is that the first inning may be the only time in a game you get the full top of your order up at the same time.

The only other factor I will mention is that fairman's stats were based on NCAA Division I ... my guess is that there's a much higher % chance that a batter sac bunting at that level is going to be out at first base than if you're playing say 10-U or 12-U. And I'm also pretty sure that you willl score more runs with runners on 1B and 2B with no outs than a runner on 1B or 2B and one out.

But sure, the ideal is to get her down to 2B without having to give up an out.

 

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The stats that were developed during one of the NCAA DI playoffs indicated that a runner at first with no outs and and runner at second with one out had the about the same odds of scoring. The bunting her over is not clearly a winning strategy in softball.

Try to get her to second without giving up an out. Let your batter hit, straight steal, passed ball, run on a change-up, etc...
I call second base.... 'where runners go to die.'

I have a question about that, maybe you don't know the answer but, when they compare the two stats, did they discount the runners who were at second with one out as a result of the bunt? Here is my concern in those stats - A runner at first with no outs who ends up at second with one out and then scores would in fact count as scoring from first with no outs AND scoring from second with one out. IN other words anyone who got to second and eventually scored as a result of a sacrifice would have always started at first....

Thoughts on this?

 

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I think the game sacrifices way too much. Might be we still remember our baseball days for the men but with 60 foot bases rather than 90 foot bases a lot can happen so give it time to develope something. A lot of ways she can get to second. Ball in the dirt, straight steal.... You can play small ball without bunting for a sacrifice. More girls need to know how to bunt for a single, slug bunt, push bunt rather than just drop a sacrifice down. If you bunt and run every time then yes you will get doubled up from time to with pop ups but if the runner is reacting to the ball in the dirt then she should have not trouble getting to second plus giving the batter a chance at getting on as well. Early in the game, I don't sacrifice outs for 60ft but I will try to manufacture 60ft.

Now no outs and a winning or tying run late in the game at second, she gets bunted over without hesitation. And the whole park should know it.

 

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We're a little off topic since this thread was more about stealing than bunting, but I think it's interesting and relevant since you have to look at the alternatives vs. stealing.

Jcrue ... the game has no doubt changed ... more offense than there used to be for starters. If anything though, I would say that there always has been a lot more bunting than in baseball and now that there is more offense, it is not as much more as it used to be. In my opinion, the 60' bases make the likelihood of the success of a sac bunt much higher in softball than baseball. In baseball, you will see them going for the lead runner more. The other thing about softball is that it's only 7 innings vs. 9, and in travel ball sometimes you're lucky to get in only 5 innings ... so you only have half as many chances to score.

To me, so much depends on the players you're working with ... how good of a bunter are they, how fast are they, how good are they at hitting away, and how good is the runner hitting behind them? If my #1 and #2 hitters are on 1st and 2nd and no outs, then it can be a tough decision about bunting your #3, who is presumably one of your best hitters. But if I have a lot of confidence in my #4 and #5 hitters, then I might be bunting #3 especially if she has some speed ... while I have a whole different scenario if its #5 and #6 that are on and #7 is up and she's a good hitter but slow. If #8 and #9 are weaker hitters who I'm not confident will hit the pitcher, it doesn't make a lot of sense to bunt #7, right?

 

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It is a game-to-game situation. I have been burned more times than not by stealing with batter swinging away so I really have to 'be feeling it' to call that early on. I usually fall back to a delay steal if the runner has decent speed and I want to check things out. It is early enough where the catcher/pitcher may not have picked up on the runners 'tell'.

 

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I disagree. I feel from coaching baseball at a high level as well that with 90ft bases you need more help to get him over -vs- 60ft and getting her over. You don't have to be fast to be a good baserunner in softball. If you recognize out of the pitchers hand or get a great jump on a ball in the dirt 60ft bases can be taken advantage of. Throw an extra 30ft on there and a pitch in the dirt may not be as inviting. Of course game situations change everything but early in games I tend to be very agressive and don't give outs away.

 

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There are way too many factors to set a hard fast rule on this IMHO.

How fast is "Your fastest runner"?
Does she get a good jump or is she always a little late?
Does she come off the bag each time like she is taking it?
How does the pitcher throw?
Does she use her change a lot?
Does she throw a drop often?
Does the catcher set herself well?
Does the catcher fall-off as she receives the ball?
etc......

I am the type that will never have a runner steal on the first pitch unless I see something I can exploit. I do agree that you need to challenge the catcher early in the game. I also taught my faster players to take off on every pitch that takes a catcher to her knees or takes her glove to the ground. Get in the pitcher and catchers head early and work it. God I miss coaching. LoL

 

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I have a question about that, maybe you don't know the answer but, when they compare the two stats, did they discount the runners who were at second with one out as a result of the bunt? Here is my concern in those stats - A runner at first with no outs who ends up at second with one out and then scores would in fact count as scoring from first with no outs AND scoring from second with one out. IN other words anyone who got to second and eventually scored as a result of a sacrifice would have always started at first....

Thoughts on this?

Great point, but I'd exclude the runners where a sacrifice was attempted (sacrifices aren't always successful) from the ones on 1st with no outs. That would give you a more meaningful comparison of the runners who scored from first w/o trying to sacrifice vs the ones that scored from 2nd with 1 out. Better yet would be a comparison of the runners that scored where a sacrifice was attempted vs not attempted.

 

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As I recall the statical analysis covered several thousand plays of he NCAA D1 tournament, all at a very high level of performance. I thought that this was substantial and provided some insight in to our game. This data would compatible with MLB Stats but still may have little bearing on your decision making based on your particular level of competition and age group.

 

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Get the runner over anyway you can at the time you feel it best. There is no set moment, but the one thing that has to happen and no matter what batter, they HAVE TO EXECUTE that bunt!!! too many girls that can hit a long ball can't bunt for cr## and that is unacceptable. Start them young on the fundamentals no matter how boring, because as they get older one run games can be the norm......

 

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fairman: I exchanged some e-mails with the guy who did the study. It covered only the College World Series. He admitted in his article the sample size was extremely small and some of his results bear that out. I forget the exact stat, but one was something like there was a better chance to score with a runner on second and one out than with a runner on third and one out. Of course, that would make no sense and would not hold up over time.

Nonetheless, his study was the first one I've seen in our game and is a good start in bringing some logic into strategic decisions. Otherwise, we pretty much have to rely on figures from MLB, which aren't going to necessarily be valid for fastpitch.

 

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Almost never on the first pitch because the pitcher is trying to get that first strike and it is usually a fastball plus if the team that is on defense know the player is fast they will probably throw a pitch out to see if she goes.

 

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Mix it up dont always go first pitch older I get will be dead in water if that's case. Depends alot on catcher and I like ideal of testing her early.i generally follow never get your first out or third out at third base. But in certain situations follow your instincts no set thing ever worst hand in poker statistically is 7-2 unless flop is 7-7-2 lol