yo yocoach ! i hear ya... here;s my take. things change everyday. new tests are being developed and now they have a home test and a saliva test. the capabilities grow daily in the amount of testing we can do. Its amazing what the private sector has done! GO USA! i think 80% of us all already had it one way or another. getting a vaccine will take a long time but we dont have a cure for the flu and we seem to do alright each and every year. once the numbers are in i bet it will be a % of a % of people that may die and will be less than the flu bug that hits us every year. but with governors in control of things publicly held fields might not play... privately ones will. i think we could be playing in some way by mid June. once that sun comes out and if you shoot up some lysol... you'll be fine. (JK - dont shoot up lysol people!! jk) gotta have a sense of humor.
While I agree with you about the numbers, they'll still remain skewed due to every death in a hospital, regardless of the true cause, is being reported as a C0vid-19 death or Covid-19 related and other deaths that truly are Covid-19 caused/related are going unreported due to them never being tested. One of my best friends was 70 YO. He was diabetic, overweight and already had breathing issues due to his weight/cigar smoking. He had all of the symptoms other than a fever. He went to his Doctor and was sent home without being tested and told to rest and drink lots of fluids. Two weeks later, not feeling any better, he went back. Still no test, told the same thing and sent home. The following day he passed. I firmly believe he had it but his death will go unreported. The other thing is, just because you've had Covid-19 and developed antibodies, new evidence is coming out that you can possibly catch it again. If infected again, will the results be better, worse or the same as last time? Too much is still unknown about this thing.
Like I said, I'm not holding my breath although I am hopeful, and maybe unreasonably optimistic, we'll get some ball in this Summer. Under what circumstances are yet to be seen. There's many more factors to all of this I think too few have considered.
For example, in our overly litigious society, what happens if we get the chance to play and someone gets Covid-19 at the tournament? What happens if they sue? Even though it would be extremely difficult for them to prove that they got it at the tourney, the lawyers' fees will be in the thousands if not tens of thousands. Will the tourney insurance cover it? Ehhh...maybe. Will it bankrupt the hosting organization if it doesn't? Probably many of them. How many organizations would be willing to take that chance? This is just one of the factors to consider. I'm not saying it can't be overcome, just that the new norms will be far from where we previously considered "normal" and probably even further than we ever imagined; especially if the government sticks their nose in it more than they already have which is a foregone conclusion.
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