Strategy question

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The question I was wondering that nobody seemed to be asking was what are the odds my runner (who steals second successfully 80% of the time) will be safe stealing third?

But that's not what you said. You said that the leadoff batter successfully steals bases 80% of the time, not just second base 80% of the time.

There are just too many other factors to consider to even try to answer the initial question.

Len

 

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It's that robot mode again... Heck, I watched a team that finished tied for 13th at 14-U ASA Nationals not throw down with a 8-1 lead in the 7th inning on a first-third play! That's just criminal as there was nothing at all to lose and an out to gain.

This is probably the wrong forum for me to say this, but one of the things about softball that I find really discouraging is the nearly universal acceptance of the popular wisdom.

The smart, knowledgable people -- the ones who think for themselves -- are unfortunately all too rare at the tournament and HS level.

I'm hoping for more from college coaches.

:cap:

 

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This is probably the wrong forum for me to say this, but one of the things about softball that I find really discouraging is the nearly universal acceptance of the popular wisdom.

I might as well go all the way here...

I also think too many coaches inject themselves into the center of the action during games -- with all the bunting, stealing, hit 'n runs, etc.

Hey, guys, this is softball, not chess.

Again, there's a place for all that. But there's also a place for teaching your girls to play the game -- hit, catch, throw, back up, *know* what's happening -- and then just letting them do their thing.

I see coach after coach nag and nag and nag their team during games. They can't keep their mouths shut.

When I see this I think, what the heck were you doing in the off-season if your team doesn't know when to go after the lead runner or when to take the sure out.

Let's teach these girls to *know* the game and *play* the game.



All those opposed to me being allowed to post one more post on these boards, say Aye.

;&

 

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Also, how come every time I post it keeps saying I've had 86 posts?

 

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But that's not what you said. You said that the leadoff batter successfully steals bases 80% of the time, not just second base 80% of the time.

There are just too many other factors to consider to even try to answer the initial question.

Len

You are right in that I said she steals successfully 80% of the time. But then, why would anyone bunt her to third if that's the case? Just steal the base. You can have a runner on third and no outs 80% of the time and the other option is to wind up with an almost certain out and maybe move the runner to third.

 

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You can have a runner on third and no outs 80% of the time and the other option is to wind up with an almost certain out and maybe move the runner to third.

Good point. I'm not sure a runner advances to third 80% of the time when a batter attempts a bunt. Pop-ups, fouls and misses seem to occur more often than successful bunts. I would guess your runner has a better chance of getting there by stealing.

 

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Good point. I'm not sure a runner advances to third 80% of the time when a batter attempts a bunt. Pop-ups, fouls and misses seem to occur more often than successful bunts. I would guess your runner has a better chance of getting there by stealing.

Yes, I agree. I have been meaning for years to log the success rate of sac bunt attempts and have never done it. If I had to guess, I'd say it breaks down something like this...

50% - Move runner up a base and batter is out.
25% - Foul balls and called strikes get the count to two strikes and bunt is called off.
15% - Bunt is popped up for an out.
10% - Bunt is successful and defense makes an error or runner beats it out, resulting in two base runners.

I know there are other possibilities (a walk or hit batter, for example), but that's a crude estimate. I have given sac bunts a ton of thought over the last few years and have soured on them quite a bit. There are certainly times for them and I probably averaged .75 sac bunt signals per game this past season. The one thing that stuck in my mind the last several years is that I find that I'm almost always feeling happy when the other team sac bunts and we get an out.

 

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This is pretty much what I was looking for. quakerman more or less had it, too. Particularly the part about giving away too many outs with bunts.

Wow. Thanks Joe...

I look at it this way.. if she can steal third.. then back that batter up in the box and if you want.. let the batter square to bunt and just get in the catcher's way. The batter owns the box !!! Just make sure she doesn't bunt the ball or leave the box.

Before the pitch.. if the catcher is tight up on the plate.. the batter should ...when the pitcher starts her wind-up.. move back and squeeze the catcher.. as the catcher can't come out forward as she'll interfere with the batter who is completely squared to bunt with a little extra right shoulder over the plate..LOL..... and the catcher is not far enough behind her to throw behind the batter to third.

Is there a signal coaches have for "square to bunt BUT don't make contact" ?

Take the strike and now hit away.

Not getting those girls going to second after a walk with a runner on third is absolutely nuts! Teach the second baseman to come forward and be prepared for a throw.. catch and tag.. and hold the runner at third. One out. Thanks stupid other team.

Here's another reason I don't think managers think properly sometimes.

My father managed a team for years.. me and my brothers who were older than me. He NEVER coached a base. Never. He had two people out there coaching the bases.. while he controlled everything from the bench. His theory was that a manager gets too caught up with what is immediately happening around him.. versus the whole picture of offense and offensive decisions. He was closer to the batter at the plate and could relay "suggestions" to the batter about their swing, etc... We always had winning teams, too.

But, I see it all the time.. the manager taking third bases coaching box on offense.

First, what is your thought on that, Joe? Secondly, I love Northwest United States. Need an asst coach...:lmao::lmao: They will be kicking me out of Ohio before long ( see ASA 16u Hall of Fame tournament thread).

Thought I'd ask. Especially before Roger moves his kid to the Whitworth area and ask for the job.

Hey, Roger. Hope all is well with you and the family !!!

 

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Back in 2008 I was intrigued with the sac bunt because I hated giving up that out. I began wondering what other teams were doing and how it played a role in their success so I took all the teams who had made it to the College WS that year (Final 8) and pulled their stats then compared it to the larger Ohio schools and here is what I found out.

Teams that are successful use the sac bunt, but in the National Champs Florida Gators case it was a little more than 1% of their total at bats. They relied heavily on stealing bases and driving in runs with sac flys, sac hits and the long ball. In the case of Ohio State it was less than .5% of the time. So you need to know when to use it to be successful.

D1 AVG GP-GS AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB SLG% BB HBP SO GDP OB% SF SH SB-ATT PO A E FLD%


UF .312 70-70 1808 401 564 97 13 61 351 870 .481 236 40 275 0 .398 24 50 94-122 1417

UA .309 58-58 1567 361 484 90 10 94 327 876 .559 210 32 333 9 .399 12 35 43-53 1139 348 43 .972

ALA .332 62-62 1569 435 521 114 9 76 387 881 .562 250 61 249 5 .439 17 47 159-181 1198 389 39 .976

UCLA .314 57-57 1520 281 478 93 6 36 255 691 .455 170 26 253 10 .390 12 48 41-55 1170 361 40 .975

A&M .303 61-61 1574 327 477 91 12 47 295 733 .466 221 36 283 3 .398 14 43 71-83 1224 464 27 .984

VT .244 66-66 1702 244 415 72 7 21 218 564 .331 178 32 275 6 .325 12 43 102-114

ULL .317 64-64 1741 394 552 79 11 60 339 833 .478 239 21 274 8 .403 13 20 70-78 1250 406 45 .974

ASU .332 66-66 1761 456 585 105 8 95 418 991 .563 281 38 313 3 .432 14 64 45-55 1332 402 58 .968

Ohio Schools
D1 AVG GP-GS AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB SLG% BB HBP SO GDP OB% SF SH SB-ATT PO A E FLD%


CSU .265 49-49 1304 192 346 57 15 21 168 496 .380 109 14 184 2 .328 4 45 74-98 1019 361 83 . 943

BGSU .237 43-43 1102 150 261 53 5 35 133 429 .389 149 12 293 7 .333 3 24 22-31 857 394 75 .943

KSU .250 58-58 1499 232 375 62 11 49 209 606 .404 145 16 308 7 .321 8 37 74-86 1210 395 46 .972

MU 279 50-50 1314 190 367 61 6 18 173 494 .376 119 16 245 3 .344 11 51 61-70 993 390 48 .966

OSU .264 56-56 1480 221 390 42 4 21 187 503 .340 189 28 283 5 .356 9 44 36-44 1137 538 96 .946

OU .276 55-55 1422 211 393 53 10 11 179 129 22 178 43-67 1099 519 55 .967

UA .253 58-58 1427 174 361 49 16 17 151 493 .345 114 25 274 2 .318 4 67 123-151 1130 539 74 .958

UD .275 51-51 1334 196 367 56 6 14 169 477 .358 114 40 266 4 .349 5 59 43-60 1012 432 47 .968

UT .281 43-43 1115 203 313 61 15 23 173 473 .424 140 20 220 3 .369 6 25 50-57 801 277 46 .959

WSU .315 59-59 1683 345 530 86 21 67 316 859 .510 142 22 282 9 .374 9 23 55-72 1167 573 81 .956

YSU .263 49-49 1206 165 317 59 5 39 152 503 .417 101 14 223 6 .326 6 30 22-36 889 408 87 .937

D2

UF .219 41-41 1025 107 224 26 9 5 88 283 276 109 11 212 3 .299 5 30 35-45 798 357 70 .943

AU .299 46-46 1220 210 365 64 14 14 181 499 .409 87 14 168 5 .351 8 48 59-69 912 411 43 .969

 

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That is just amazing info gathered by yourself .

Does it surprise me you done that? Absolutely not.

Thinking managers win games.. managers that are too involved on the field giving signals, watching the batter swings and watching the runners.... well they are too busy to manage properly in my opinion.

 

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Thinking managers win games.. managers that are too involved on the field giving signals, watching the batter swings and watching the runners.... well they are too busy to manage properly in my opinion.

This is a whole different thread and one I enjoy discussing. Generally, it's my opinion that third base coaches are focused WAY too much on the hitter and giving the hitter unwanted advice than they are on studying the defense and figuring out what things the offense might be able to take advantage of.

 

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You are right in that I said she steals successfully 80% of the time. But then, why would anyone bunt her to third if that's the case? Just steal the base. You can have a runner on third and no outs 80% of the time and the other option is to wind up with an almost certain out and maybe move the runner to third.

Well.....if I'm going up against a pitcher with a 0.50 ERA and a catcher that has a 90%+ success rate at throwing runners out, I might decide to try to manufacture a run. Like I said, the initial question is too vague for me to answer.

Len

 

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This is a whole different thread and one I enjoy discussing. Generally, it's my opinion that third base coaches are focused WAY too much on the hitter and giving the hitter unwanted advice than they are on studying the defense and figuring out what things the offense might be able to take advantage of.

I see it all the time. Manager coaching third...watching the batter and then after the pitch.. controlling the runner on second.. and just ABSOLUTELY missing some opportunities.. then focus back to the batter...shouting instruction...on and on and on.....

Some teams and managers are blessed with two and three coaches, etc.... but if I had ones I could teach "MY" way of thinking.. then I, as a manager, could do my real job... managing my team's game situation. Look for those little things to win.

There's a 10u (now 11u) team in the Columbus area.. I won't mention names to front them out... but I think they are a wonderful team. I don't think they even have tryouts..LOL Don't have to !!!!

Absolutely intelligent manager and he has I swear 3 coaches and I know a couple of the parents that could coach....LOL Winners they are and in my opinion winners they will be down the road.

I think they have that edge. I really can't wait to hear how they do this year. I'll be watching.

 

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Yes, I agree. I have been meaning for years to log the success rate of sac bunt attempts and have never done it. If I had to guess, I'd say it breaks down something like this...

50% - Move runner up a base and batter is out.
25% - Foul balls and called strikes get the count to two strikes and bunt is called off.
15% - Bunt is popped up for an out.
10% - Bunt is successful and defense makes an error or runner beats it out, resulting in two base runners.

I know there are other possibilities (a walk or hit batter, for example), but that's a crude estimate. I have given sac bunts a ton of thought over the last few years and have soured on them quite a bit. There are certainly times for them and I probably averaged .75 sac bunt signals per game this past season. The one thing that stuck in my mind the last several years is that I find that I'm almost always feeling happy when the other team sac bunts and we get an out.

I'm going to have to say hmmmmm on those estimates, but I'm just taking a WAG on that myself. I think the defense fails to make the play far more often. (20%+) At the younger ages, far more often. But even at the college level. Haven't watched much D1 (just some of what is on TV), but even there I see crazy things happen on bunts all the time. At the D3 level which I have watched quite a bit of the last 2 years, I see defensive disasters happen what seems like quite often. ( I may be guilty of remembering the disasters and forgetting the routine.) I see lot's of big innings result from small ball early on that morphs into a frustrated defense and lot's of baserunners. I guess my point is if one is going to play the percentages, they should know what the percentages are.

It can be hard to track, especially just from the scorebook. If the defense fails to make the play and it results in a hit, was it a great bunt or poor defense? Book probably won't say.

I quite agree that playing the percentages should be the way to go. Apparently that has been totally embraced in MLB, seems like managers don't scratch their behind without consutling the numbers these days. Conversly, I know of a coach who will bunt no matter what with a runner on first, I think it's just been imprinted on the brain. Best move is to think it through as to when and why.

Regarding giving up the out on a 1st-3rd steal, if your catcher is 10% at throwing out runners and 20% at having the ball end up in CF, do you throw down? :lmao: Been there done that......

 

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Regarding the percentages, I agree at the younger ages that a sac bunt is much more likely to get messed up by the defense. At my Div. III college level, we failed to get an out exactly one time all season on an opponent's attempt to sac bunt. There were two times all season when the other team failed to get an out on a sac bunt attempt by us. They are pretty much an automatic out at our level. Same goes for any decent 16-U and 18-U ball. If teams are failing to get an out on a bunt more than 20% of the time, then it would begin to make sense to just bunt all the time if that number starts to exceed 30%.

With the first-third steal, I'm assuming the runner stealing second is kind of jogging to second and just giving you the out if you want to take it.

You had mentioned the coach who will bunt no matter what with a runner on first. That's the type of mentality that I think just costs teams runs. Coaches can come to different conclusions on the likely percentages, but to just bunt or do the same thing every time without giving it any thought is just a huge disservice to a team.

 

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I'm going to have to say hmmmmm on those estimates, but I'm just taking a WAG on that myself. I think the defense fails to make the play far more often. (20%+) At the younger ages, far more often. But even at the college level. Haven't watched much D1 (just some of what is on TV), but even there I see crazy things happen on bunts all the time. At the D3 level which I have watched quite a bit of the last 2 years, I see defensive disasters happen what seems like quite often. ( I may be guilty of remembering the disasters and forgetting the routine.) I see lot's of big innings result from small ball early on that morphs into a frustrated defense and lot's of baserunners. I guess my point is if one is going to play the percentages, they should know what the percentages are.

It can be hard to track, especially just from the scorebook. If the defense fails to make the play and it results in a hit, was it a great bunt or poor defense? Book probably won't say.

I quite agree that playing the percentages should be the way to go. Apparently that has been totally embraced in MLB, seems like managers don't scratch their behind without consutling the numbers these days. Conversly, I know of a coach who will bunt no matter what with a runner on first, I think it's just been imprinted on the brain. Best move is to think it through as to when and why.

Regarding giving up the out on a 1st-3rd steal, if your catcher is 10% at throwing out runners and 20% at having the ball end up in CF, do you throw down? :lmao: Been there done that......

Time for a new catcher on the team is my opinion... But seriously.. most the time if the catcher fires the ball to the pitcher.. that pitcher ( along with her second baseman ) should be able to decide if it is feasible to get an out on that prancing runner going to second trying to draw a throw.. and hold the runner at third. You wouldn't throw it to the shortstop.. as she has to square her shoulders to thrown home. You don't allow your catcher to thrown to the second baseman. The second baseman has not only the angle.. she has a complete view of the runner at third.. to which she can make a decision to step up and NOT tag that runner and throw home for the out.

The second baseman position.. in my mind on a play like this.. is NOT on the bag at second... it's 10 to 12 feet from it up the basepath between first and second and easily adjusted if need be based on the runners position

 

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This is a whole different thread and one I enjoy discussing. Generally, it's my opinion that third base coaches are focused WAY too much on the hitter and giving the hitter unwanted advice than they are on studying the defense and figuring out what things the offense might be able to take advantage of.

Joe.. when you have time...LOL.. start a thread with this issue and I too want to hear some people's perspective on that issue.

 

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Oh my, ok. I'm reluctant to do more than one of these types of threads every few weeks or so for a couple of reasons. One, I tend to spend too much time myself on the thread, and two, I tend to start preaching and arguing with people. I do enjoy these strategy threads the most here, though.

 

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LOL.. arguments??? I thought it was lively discussions.....

After you do " Why do Managers Coach Third Base? "...

I'll start one with..."DO you really think your team is a Gold Team" and watch the fur fly...LOL ( saving this one for the boring days of winter)

 

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I umpire in the morning and am out of town for the weekend. I'll look for the thread when I get home..

I think.. really truly think.. this issue needs to be addressed here in Ohio. I say that as... it sure is a complete waste of time sometimes for the girl at the plate. If the manager can talk from the dugout to the batter.. the coach on third can pay attention to the runner and give advice to her...

And you will see more and more umpires calling strikes for being out of the box in between pitches next year. Enforcement is coming strong for the 2011 season.

These timed games by TD's is requiring it.. as there is so much time wasted in an inning with coaches yelling instructions from third base or try to gather the girl. Enforcement of offensive time outs is going to be strong as well.

As an umpire.. I have definately seen it all...believe me .... LOL

This is my last weekend of umpiring, Joe. I shall miss it. Doing an USSSA Men "E" states in Dayton as a favor to the state director.

I think I will be sad on Monday morning when I awake... but it is time for the "new" guard to step up and take over. I've done my years... 26 ... and loved every minute of it.