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So we're looking at another crappy weather today tomorrow, so here's something to think about and debate on a day off ...
I've been doing some reading and thinking (dangerous I know!) about how batting lineups are created. I think most of us are familiar with the traditional lineup strategies that have been used for many years ... good batting averages and speed at the top of the lineups, good power in the middle, and the weaker hitters near the bottom though ideally some speed at the very bottom to ideally be on base when the top comes up. In recent years, OPS (on base plus slugging) has surfaced as a stat with some theories about how that might affect the way teams are put together (e.g., Moneyball) as well as potentially on lineups.
The more I think about our game of fastpitch softball, and especially in this day and age of timed games in travel ball (which I have gone on record many times to say I hate!), the more merit I think there is in looking at how lineups are constructed a little differently than they are done in traditional baseball. As we all know, a lot of timed softball games end up going only 5-6 innings, and sometimes even shorter. What that can result in often is the top part of the lineup getting up maybe 3 times in a game and the bottom only twice, or worse yet the top only twice and the bottom only once. In these 2 scenarios, we are talking about the top of the order getting potentially getting up 50-100% more than the bottom of the order in shortened games! In a 9 inning baseball game, the difference is still a lot but not nearly as much ... e.g., 5 plate appearances vs. 4 is only a 25% difference.
I think a pretty direct correlation can be shown between OPS and run production, so my premise is that if you know you're likely to play a shortened game (and maybe even in 7 inning games), that the best lineup might be to simply arrange your lineup from highest OPS to lowest. Another way to think about lineups is if you're down to your last batter, who do you want up the most, and I would argue that it's likely to be the batter with the highest OPS.
Of course, there are many other factors like how good and representative your stats are, how recent they are and who's hot and cold, who is likely to do well against a certain type of pitching, etc., but I'd love to hear some debate about what I'm suggesting here. Maybe you'll convince me I'm dead wrong, but maybe I will get you to think about lineups just a bit differently too. JoeA ... I know you love this side of the game ... will be great to hear your thoughts!
I've been doing some reading and thinking (dangerous I know!) about how batting lineups are created. I think most of us are familiar with the traditional lineup strategies that have been used for many years ... good batting averages and speed at the top of the lineups, good power in the middle, and the weaker hitters near the bottom though ideally some speed at the very bottom to ideally be on base when the top comes up. In recent years, OPS (on base plus slugging) has surfaced as a stat with some theories about how that might affect the way teams are put together (e.g., Moneyball) as well as potentially on lineups.
The more I think about our game of fastpitch softball, and especially in this day and age of timed games in travel ball (which I have gone on record many times to say I hate!), the more merit I think there is in looking at how lineups are constructed a little differently than they are done in traditional baseball. As we all know, a lot of timed softball games end up going only 5-6 innings, and sometimes even shorter. What that can result in often is the top part of the lineup getting up maybe 3 times in a game and the bottom only twice, or worse yet the top only twice and the bottom only once. In these 2 scenarios, we are talking about the top of the order getting potentially getting up 50-100% more than the bottom of the order in shortened games! In a 9 inning baseball game, the difference is still a lot but not nearly as much ... e.g., 5 plate appearances vs. 4 is only a 25% difference.
I think a pretty direct correlation can be shown between OPS and run production, so my premise is that if you know you're likely to play a shortened game (and maybe even in 7 inning games), that the best lineup might be to simply arrange your lineup from highest OPS to lowest. Another way to think about lineups is if you're down to your last batter, who do you want up the most, and I would argue that it's likely to be the batter with the highest OPS.
Of course, there are many other factors like how good and representative your stats are, how recent they are and who's hot and cold, who is likely to do well against a certain type of pitching, etc., but I'd love to hear some debate about what I'm suggesting here. Maybe you'll convince me I'm dead wrong, but maybe I will get you to think about lineups just a bit differently too. JoeA ... I know you love this side of the game ... will be great to hear your thoughts!
